Market Trends on the San Francisco Peninsula

"If we buy this place for 900k now, How much do you think we should be able to sell it for in say 2019, or 2020?I understand the future is uncertain, just asking for your estimate."
Questions of this type often are asked by buyers In our high-cost area. They are, naturally, a bit shell-shocked by prices and concerned about the future.
Not only does appreciation vary from town to town, it varies between single family homes and condos/townhouses. It varies in different price points.
To give this particular buyer some idea of what he might expect, based on the past since we can't foresee the future, I pulled historical data in the area and type of properties which interest him the most. 
Appreciation, 5 years, one areaAnother way to look at the same data:
Graph, appreciation, one neighborhoodDoes this assure the buyer that a property will appreciate in value over the next 1 or 2 years? No, we can't foresee the future, but we can see what has happened in the past. Appreciation as has ranged between 4.08% and 14.54% each year over the last 5 years, for a total appreciation of over 58% in 5 years. 
Is buying a home or investment property a good idea in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco peninsula? Everyone must decide for him- or herself. I can tell you that I have bought a property in the last couple of years and am happy to have done so.

--- Come for a visit; Stay for a lifetime!

Lottie Kendall, Realtor®


CA DRE#10215160; 650-465-4547






Comment balloon 11 commentsLottie Kendall • January 20 2018 05:21PM


Thank you for keeping us posted and up to date. Best of luck!

Posted by Jeremy K. Frost, Associate Broker, ABR,CNE,CRS,ePro,PSA,RENE,SRS (Keller Williams Realty) about 3 years ago

Good morning Lottie - I hear people say this about investing all of the time.  All we can do is give states and mention that past performance is not a guarantee.

Posted by Grant Schneider, Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes (Performance Development Strategies) about 3 years ago

Some regions have been "discovered"...and the fundamentals mean they will always have investment cachet.

Posted by Li Read, Caring expertise...knowledge for you! (Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring)) about 3 years ago

You probably won't believe this, Lottie -- well, maybe you will -- but I started selling investment properties in the 1970s, we predicted in writing future appreciation, based on past trends. Bad risk management move, but we did it anyway back then.

Posted by Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Realtor Top 1%, Put 40 years of experience to work for you (RE/MAX Gold) about 3 years ago

Thank you, Jeremy K. Frost 

Hi Grant Schneider - we can let people see what past appreciation has been; they decide for themselves if it's right for them.


Posted by Lottie Kendall, Helping make your real estate dreams a reality (Compass) about 3 years ago

Hello Li Read - I hope my acquaintances, Jennifer and Kevin Wilson, reached out to you--they hope to relocate to your gorgeous island!

Posted by Lottie Kendall, Helping make your real estate dreams a reality (Compass) about 3 years ago

Risk management wasn't discussed much, if all, in the 1970s Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Real Estate Agent, Top 1% of Lyon Agents Nor were seller disclosures. 

Posted by Lottie Kendall, Helping make your real estate dreams a reality (Compass) about 3 years ago

Lottie,  The market is insane. Appreciation is through the roof. We do not have a crystal ball. We look at trends. Is this market sustainable?  I do not believe so. Yet, with no inventory, those with cash will continue to drive prices up.  

Posted by Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist, Probate Real Estate (KD Realty - 408.972.1822) about 3 years ago

Kathleen Daniels - 14.5% appreciation in 2-bedroom condos in one San Mateo County town in 2017; 58% appreciation in 5 years. First-time buyers today really have to want a place to compete in multiples, waiving all contingencies, often competing with cash buyers.

Posted by Lottie Kendall, Helping make your real estate dreams a reality (Compass) about 3 years ago

You always provide good information about your housing market. Thank you for sharing 

Posted by Gita Bantwal, REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel (RE/MAX Centre Realtors) about 3 years ago

Good morning, Gita Bantwal - looking at market trends is essential to helping buyers and sellers understand what's going on. Wishing you a good day and productive, happy week to come.

Posted by Lottie Kendall, Helping make your real estate dreams a reality (Compass) about 3 years ago